By Joe Salimando www.eleblog.com
Had you attended sessions at April’s Electric Drive Transportation Assn. event in D.C., you might believe that a lot of what’s going on right now in the EV biz (cars, chargers, you-name-it) is . . . experimentation.
A national, multi-billion-dollar experiment – involving electrical manufacturers, car makers, regulators, electrical contractors and inspectors, promotions aimed at the “early adopters” among our citizens . . . and more? Wow!
An easy summary: No one knows what will happen. Very few are able to monitor all that is already happening! For most of the participants – whether foot-draggers or enthused folks who want to charge ahead – the future beyond 2015 is unseeable.
For an example, take Arun Banksota, president of NRG’s EV effort, which is taking place in Texas. His company offers three “charging plans” to Houston residents: Buy the plan just for your house, just for mobile charging, or everything. There is a monthly fee; NRG will sign three-year deals (see video interview here).
I’ve heard Banksota speak twice in recent months. Last time, someone (from the utility biz) asked him whether his company wasn’t running a huge risk – what if the price of electricity goes up soon . . . and NRG sits there, with these EV charging deals at specific prices for 36 months?
Banksota squelched that nicely, saying in effect: “Hey, how many EVs duya think they’re gonna buy down there in Houston in the next little while?” Why nicely? Because he didn’t deliver a Brooklynized “whadRya – stupid or something?” before explaining that; and he didn’t start to speak . . .very . . . s-l-o-w-l-y in answer to the utility exec questioning him.
At the EDTA event, he said customers are signing up in significant numbers when they get the choices explained to them (he cited a conversion %, it was high, but I didn’t hear the specific number). Of customers who have signed three-year deals, 50% chose the complete plan (which I think runs $89/month); 30% have done home-only; the balance have chosen the mobile plan.
NOTE: This is NOT a commercial for ECOtality.
While in the company’s booth, your humble reporter noticed the EV charging “pump” connected to a small black box (see above, pump at left, box lower right).
What’s that thing? Don Karner of the company told me it’s a “car in a box” – see below – used, he said, by ECOtality installers to “stimulate faults” to test out the installation quality.
Now, let’s think about this for a moment:
- NRG certainly will learn a heck of a lot, with little risk, about how EV buyers (in TX, at least) make decisions. It also as the plan as an excuse to regularly talk (and listen) to them. Isn’t that a good idea in an experimental phase?
- This experiment might result in a loss (of $) for NRG, but certainly it will be in the tens or maybe hundreds of thousands . . . not millions (and it might MAKE money, too!).
- Were you a citizen buyer of an EV, here is a way to lock in your driving costs. Perhaps you’ve never been to Houston; folks spend a lot of time in cars. To lock in your energy-for-transportation costs at $89/month for years may seem to be a smart move. After all, gasoline prices are high . . . and, let’s not forget, lots of folks in Houston work in the oil biz (maybe they know something?).
Summary judgment?
Just yesterday I read a condemnation of U.S. EV experimentation – from a conservative financial columnist. I read his thoughts every week; I admire the guy’s financial thinking. The EV put-down was included in a general slapping-around the guy authored for all things Green.
Without getting into the details, I thought his coming to an instant conclusion on the EV business might not be fair. EVs might not pan out; but it’s too soon to come to a conclusion. Again, it’s a long story; but our country has put mucho dinero into battery research, thanks to the stimulus pot of honey . . . and investing in batteries is exactly the ticket for future EV gains.
Can you see crude oil in 2017 at $195/barrel? Gasoline prices at pumps in the U.S. at $6.00/gal.? Maybe it will never happen. But if it does, and if new EVs offer 200-mile or 400-mile driving ranges on a single charge . . . auto suppliers might not be able to meet the demand for EVs, and installing contractors night not be able to get enough EV charging equipment!
What I’ve been trying to do – by attending this recent EDTA event and last year’s, listening in on various webinars on EVs (sponsored by EDTA and the DoE), and a lot of reading – is to figure out if EVs have a chance.
Please: Forget what’s in the mainstream media, forget the politicians, forget the “energy independence” baloney, and all the blahblah.
Step away from the football . . .
My question is simple: Will real people – not just the wealthy, not just the greenies, not just the “early adopters” . . . buy EVs, drive ‘em, and be able to go on living their lives pretty much as they had before?
At this point, I don’t know. Here is what I do know:
1. A lot has been invested in this, and not just by our government. There’s an awful lot of R&D, investigation, and preparation going on.
2. Preliminary work is not done. There’s no standard just yet for DC “fast charging.” There are other pieces missing.
3. There’s an awful lot at stake for the EV “community” for 100% of the EV charging installations (at commercial locations and residences) to be 100% safe, 100% high-quality, 100% functional, 100% of the time. Seriously: Mistakes, unreliability, and worse (fires?) would not be good right about now. This sounds (to me) like a prescription that can be filled only by NECA contractors around the country.
Finally: In football terms, it’s first down and the EV teams are about to run their first play. It’s much too soon to drop back 15 yards and punt.