By Joe Salimando www.eleblog.com
We’re all entitled to have our own opinions. But – despite what typically happens in political debates (as in “climate change”) these days, no one is entitled to tell you what the facts are. Facts is facts!
Let’s take the case of an iceberg three times the size of Manhattan, detaching itself from an ages-old frozen structure. You can debate what it means, and what it proves (or doesn’t prove) . . . but you cannot argue with that fact.
Many electrical contractors might be thinking right now about whether to get in on the electric vehicle charging station business. Let’s look at some facts about the near-term future to solidify your thinking (so you can come to a more-informed decision) about where EVs are going between now and 2015:
1. The Chevy Volt and the Nissan Leaf are coming to market this fall, each in a limited release.
2. GM has said that it envisions a wider release of the Volt in the next 12-18 months. Add 18 months to September 2010, and you have February 2012. See this item, which deals with what GM has said about its EV plans in its recent IPO filing.
3. According to reports I’ve read, there are 15 other companies planning to bring EVs to the market in 2011-12. Google “electric vehicles 2012” and you’ll come across headlines such as “Honda plans EV, plug-in in 2012” and “Ford unveils plans for four electric cars by 2012,” and stuff about companies from Toyota to Tesla.
Side note: According to one blogger, at next month’s Frankfurt Auto Show, Renault will show only EVs. Think about that!
4. GM and Nissan will be able to annually assemble, combined, 195,000 EVs beginning along about 2012 (reference). Now, that’s not going to lead to market domination for EVs over gasoline-powered vehicles. However, if they make and sell those things, we’re talking about the need to install at least 195,000 home charging stations nationally in the year beginning September 2012. Or a significant number of “fleet” charging stations. Just for GM + Nissan.
Side note: See the news that Enterprise Rent-A-Car is buying 500 Leafs.
5. Yes, yes, yes – you can plug some of these cars into a 120V outlet, the one most people already have in a garage. However, to assure yourself of getting all of the Volt’s 40-mile range on batteries, it probably will take 10 hours to get to a full charge. For the Leaf (100-mile range), we’re talking 20 hours of this “trickle” charging.
Does that sound reasonable to you?
Folks who think they know something guess that people are going to want faster charging (and they’ll need an EC to get it). Check out this blog on alternatives for the Nissan Leaf from a “passionate alternative car enthusiast.”
6. You might want to get up-to-date – NOW – on the two fledgling DoE-funded (you paid for ‘em!) EV charging station experiments that are going on. One is Charge Point America, involving a company with the name Coulomb Technologies (nice name, eh?). The other is The EV Project, which features a company called ECOtality.
Each of these efforts – and the initial marketing plans of GM and Nissan, which are (of course) separate – envisions initial penetration by EVs in limited and selected geographical areas/localities. The idea is to roll out the things, see who bites, find out what the charging-station problems might be, see if any local-area utility distribution transformers blow up (!!!) – etc.
So you have to look at the years 2011-2015 as some kind of grand national experiment with EVs. Yes, experiments do fail. But some succeed!
7. Yes, there are all kinds of problems that skeptics and others have and will conjure up for you. It’s not entirely clear that EVs are 100% good for the environment (the E stands for electricity, half of U.S. power comes from coal, etc.). There are folks who will do a Btu analysis for you, and it may not come out the way you like. Others note that the Volt, which is not exactly a huge vehicle, retails for $41,000 – and the $7,500 federal tax credit doesn’t really get the price close to, say, $17,500.
For the individual driver, the dollars per mile of the FUEL (electricity vs. gasoline) is going to work out in favor of the EV. Send crude oil prices back up to $147/barrel (which I am willing to bet will actually happen in a few years) – and the EV advantage expands.
My personal view: The U.S. dollar was losing value when Alan Greenspan and Hank Paulson were done. Timothy Geithner and Ben S. Bernanke have taken the dollar’s value down further (your reference for this is the price of gold, which was under $500/oz. in August 2005, and this month is topping $1,200/oz.).
So my view is that we should trade these shrinking, valueless pieces of paper for all of the crude oil we can get from the Arabs and that nutjob Chavez. Let’s drain ‘em dry, as long as they’ll accept our worthless currency.
But that’s another story, isn’t it?
Without getting into all of that, there are other potential problems – to which we all should pay attention – in the implementation of EV charging stations. For example, a few weeks ago Jesse Berst, who is an impressive writer and thinker on The Smart Grid, penned ATMs for Electricity . . . I did not previously consider a public charging station to be some kind of electrical equivalent of a bank’s ATM. Did you?
It’s about NOW
For those in the electrical industry, the fact that the nation is about to engage in a national experiment with EVs is both exciting and nerve-racking. But for electrical contactors, the facts are:
(a) the experiment IS going forward, will last at least a few years, and is of serious dimensions;
(b) they can’t do it without you – they really can’t, trickle charging is some kind of bad joke; and
(c) the national EV experiment will create work for ECs at precisely the time when work is in short supply.
Yes, it would be nice if this could be seen as a sure thing, with this experiment guaranteed to succeed and EV use expanding beyond 2015 (and beyond a few million cars) onto a wonderful, emissions-free future.
But right now, most electrical people with whom I speak are worrying more about 2010 and 2011 than the year 2030. That seems appropriate; and if that’s where you are, EVs might just brighten your view of the immediate future.