Energy Solutions for a Greener America | from the National Electrical Contractors Association

As a freelance writer, editor, and publisher, I’ve attended a lot of annual Lightfair events. But it was only at this year’s renewal, held April 21-25 in Philadelphia, that I began to comprehend how stunningly incomprehensible the damn thing is. It’s like trying to get one’s arms around an Elephant!

Hundreds of exhibitors. Lots of invitations (to me, as a blogger) from suppliers to come and visit with them or attend an event. Many, many educational sessions. Tons of interesting people to speak with (and, most importantly, to whom one should listen!).

[Incidentally, the coming NECA Convention & Trade Show is getting to the same point. Industry suppliers are flocking to the thing (it was 84% sold as of 4/30/13, and the Show happens Oct. 13-15 in Washington DC). The Show might well have more than 300 exhibitors. To spend 15 minutes with just one-fifth of those contractor-focused companies will take you 15 x 60 = 900 minutes = 15 hours. But the NECA Show is open for only 14 hours . . . maybe you might want to bring with you someone else from your company?]

Back to Lightfair. In looking over the schedule I’d booked ahead of time, and the thick on-site directory, I realized that it was going to be impossible to “cover” the thing in person. In fact, this has probably been the case since the first time I attended, more than 20 years ago; however, only now have I come to appreciate how much there is to see and learn.

Initial thoughts

First, most of Lightfair was on the 2^nd floor of the Philly convention center. I stayed up there. I never got down to the additional exhibits on the first floor (I would guess those added up to maybe 1/7^th or 1/8^th of the total).

Second, the layout included everything you might think you know about Lighting, in a huge, wide-spread physical presence:

a. Hubbell Lighting and Cooper Lighting have bought many of the brand names you grew up working with. There are other companies making acquisitions; Acuity Brands just made another buy. GE’s press lunch included several references to Albeo – a company that GE Lighting acquired.

Above: The Tetra light strip product for GE. I thought it could have been a new, LED-inspired way to provide ambient lighting – but it’s aimed at people who make/install cabinet and box signs.

b. While the joke that Lightfair was really “LEDfair” is at least 3 years old, there were – as you might imagine – beaucoup exhibitors showing off LEDs and variations of LEDs. Many electrical contractors and distributors have decided that they’re going to stick with the tried-and-true names when it comes to LEDs. This has not stopped the small start-ups from proliferating. Somewhere during the 3-day event I heard someone say there are 2,200 LED companies (I’m not sure they all make products contractors can install, but it’s one heck of a number, isn’t it?).

Most lighting geniuses (I am not one of those) will tell you that the industry will consolidate; these small companies will either be taken over by the big guys or will just fade away.

If there are really 2,200 of ‘em out there, however, it looks as if one heck of a lot of consolidation is ahead of the industry.

c. Not long ago, Lighting Science Group had to recall some of its LED products. Of course, this did not escape anyone’s notice. And of course, one feature of what I heard was competing bulb-makers noting that no one had recalled anything they had made!

Above: From SWITCH, this is said to be the first LED replacement for a 3-way bulb.

Where is Alan Ruud?

I went to the Cree booth for a demo (more about that later), which was very interesting. BUT: I wanted to find Alan Ruud; I was told he was there – but I couldn’t manage to be in the same place as he was for even a few minutes. My bad.

As you  might know, Cree bought Ruud Lighting (and more) almost two years ago.

When you think of Cree, Inc., you might think of it as a johnny-come-lately to the Lighting business – especially in contrast with General Electric (founded by Thomas Alva Edison), OSRAM (which includes Sylvania), and Phillips.

However, it’s worth remembering that:

(1) Cree is a leader (and, arguably, THE leader) in LEDs, and (thus far) an independent company;

(2) you can invest in Cree stock, if you’re so inclined; it’s hard to invest in GE and think you’re buying a lighting company;

(3) Alan Ruud spent a heck of a lot of his time (and maybe still does) thinking about Lighting and Electrical Contractors; and

(4) Cree is the only one of these companies (including GE, Osram, and Philips – and perhaps – who could know? – all of the other 2,200-odd LED companies) to include a contractor-focused marketer on its board of directors!

What was not at Lightfair

Lightfair does not focus on electrical contractors. I saw very few people walking the show who struck me as familiar-looking (as I’ve been hanging around NECA in one way or another for most of the time since 1979, I think I should know).

Likewise, the heavy Lightfair education component was not aimed at contractors; lighting designers and end-users were the targets I thought I saw (reading between the lines of the various session titles).

However, had you attended (or if you do next year) – it’s not a case of having to be dragged around by the hand. Just a walk down one or two aisles of Lightfair would take you close to a full day, assuming you have a legit interest in what you are installing – and if you want to decide whether or not you want to be the contractor who stands behind a given new product or idea.

More from Lightfair coming soon.

—

By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com.
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

As a freelance writer, editor, and publisher, I’ve attended a lot of annual Lightfair events. But it was only at this year’s renewal, held April 21-25 in Philadelphia, that I began to comprehend how stunningly incomprehensible the damn thing is. It’s like trying to get one’s arms around an Elephant!

Hundreds of exhibitors. Lots of invitations (to me, as a blogger) from suppliers to come and visit with them or attend an event. Many, many educational sessions. Tons of interesting people to speak with (and, most importantly, to whom one should listen!). Read the rest of this entry

EnergySolutions.necanet.org Blog Post By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com. 
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

Most electrical contractors who do commercial work have good relationships with owners of small buildings. These are local people who may not need electrical construction work (or even maintenance) 365 days a year . . . but when they need it, they just gotta have it now– and you are the trusted, responsive, reliable source.  Read the rest of this entry

By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com.
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

One reason for electrical contractors to rush in – right now, this minute! – and grab ahold of the LED revolution is that it portends to last a very long time. You have to think beyond the tube . . . let your mind (the lighting portion of it, anyway) go beyond where we’re all been . . . and maybe even, dream a little bit.

LEDs IN TUBES WILL LOOK SILLY (later)

Here’s something from the Navigant Research blog, a report on a recent conference – quoted at some length here because the point made is important! (I’ve taken the liberty of bolding just a bit of it) –

Beyond the focus on parity and replacement, however, are opportunities that are potentially much more transformative.

Although the transistor radios of my youth seemed a major innovation compared with the vacuum-tube radios of a decade earlier, the real power of transistors came in the form of integrated circuits that unleashed a much larger information and communications revolution. 

In a presentation titled “The Next Evolution of Lighting,” Brad Koerner, director of experience design at Philips Lighting, showed how LEDs are ushering in a new paradigm for lighting design, controllability, and occupant experience. 

LED lighting form factors that mimic fluorescent tubes might make sense for today’s lamp replacement market, but they’ll probably look silly in retrospect when lighting is integrated into the very surfaces of next-generation buildings. 

Today’s lighting programmability essentially means on, off, or dim – but what happens when lighting color temperature is also programmable, allowing sunlight’s subtle differences by time of day, season, or geographic location to be carried indoors to our work and living spaces?

LEDs + DAYLIGHTING

Want something a bit more “right now” than “wowsa!” . . . ? Try this on, from the Lux Research blog – on a late-2012 release of a product made by Acuity Brands and SunOptics (again, bolding by the ES blog/Joe S) –

The LightFlex system is designed to be integrated with Acuity’s lighting control and back-up LED lighting systems.

. . . adoption will be governed by the payback period, dependent on average sunshine hours in a given location, electricity pricing, and the lighting efficiency of the LightFlex system.

If the system can provide 500 lumens/m2 or more for 2,000 hours per year, the payback can be between two years to five years in North America. 

The payback can be further shortened if the daylighting system is integrated with daylighting sensors, lighting controls, and back-up LED lights. 

COLOR OF LIGHT

Separately, the DOE’s SSL operation – which has a PDF-posting blog called “Postings” (find it here) – recently included a report on the 10^th annual SSL R&D workshop. It’s fascinating reading; here’s just a bit of it.

The color of light also affects us physiologically, which was the basis for the talk on spectrally enhanced lighting (SEL) given by panelist Brian Liebel of the Lighting Partnership.

A design method for interior lighting applications, SEL is based on the principle that increasing the amount of short-wavelength energy (i.e., blue) within the light improves visual acuity by causing the pupils to narrow, which enhances one’s efficiency at performing detailed visual tasks.

Liebel explained that this can save considerable energy by allowing for equivalent visual efficiency at lower light levels. Acknowledging the widespread industry belief that warm-

white light is generally preferred over cool-white light, he cited studies suggesting that in a work environment –which is primarily where SEL is intended to be used – the majority of people have no real preference either way.  

WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN TO CONTRACTORS?

Most of what you do is never seen. In the best possible case, the breakers don’t trip; the electrical installation is beyond Code requirements . . . and a fire never ever starts. No one thinks about the wires behind the walls, and that equipment in the basement.

However, Lighting is different. As electrical contractors are doing more and more design-built and design-assist work – and designing energy-efficiency installations and retrofits, in the Energy Solutions role advocated by NECA through this blog – you are also in the business of choosing Lighting products and, in some cases, designing Lighting layouts.

In these roles, electrical contractors are doing a lot more than building up to or beyond the National Electrical Code (or, hopefully, the applicable National Electrical Installation Standards).

Your work is creating the atmosphere in which human beings work. With LEDs, all of a sudden, you have a chance – now and certainly in the near future – to help people feel more comfortable, work more productively, and enjoy their time in the structure you are helping to build.

It’s a new role for many contractors. What’s important to remember at this point might be: There is more made possible for the Lighting environments you will create via LEDs than just shaving the energy bill!

By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com.
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

Available free from the Solar Energy Industries Association and GTM Research is a 17-page (PDF) “executive summary” of a longer (for-a-free) report on the solar industry in 2012.

See this page to get the FREE pdf (you have to provide some info first).

In addition to providing a national overview of trends that arose in recent years in U.S. solar construction (see graphic below), the report provides a state-by-state breakdown of what’s going on (part of the table is posted below).

By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com.
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

About Ernest Moniz, President Obama’s nominee for the Secretary of Energy slot (being vacated by Nobel Prize winner Steve Chu):

• He’s not the right guy (an article that pans the President’s past and present moves on energy issues).
• Moniz is a peach of a candidate (article posted to the same website as the one above!).

What about Chu? Here’s a write-up on his four years as DOE chief that pronounces his legacy as “mixed.” If you’d prefer to hear from the guy himself, here’s his “farewell letter” to DOE employees.

How would the world like it if LED lighting featured interchangeability, as well as all of its other advantages? The Zhaga Consortium describes itself as follows:

            [it] . . .  develops interface specifications that enable the interchange of LED light engines manufactured by different companies. Zhaga is a global cooperation with participation by luminaire manufacturers, lamp manufacturers, LED module makers, and companies that supply components and materials to the lighting industry.

See a 2/25/13 release on “Book 2 interface specifications” here.

What this means to contractors: Today, you can’t work with LED lighting products – and specifications – in the same ways you’ve worked in the past (and today) with traditional lighting products. Zhaga might change that.

While we’re on the subject of LED lighting, be sure to see:

1. A NECA-IBEW press release on the posting of a 3-part series on LEDs (from the ElectricTV.net website) to the prime U.S. Department of Energy (energy.gov) website.
2. And on the “Postings” piece of the DOE SSL (solid-state lighting) website, here are just a few of the pieces posted in the year’s first two months (all downloadable in PDF):

• DOE program 2012 review.
• DOE program preview, 2013
• CALiPER testing (review of 2012 results)
• Summary of the SSL R&D workshop held in January (this is a major LED niche-industry event).
• The 37 winners of the 2012 competition for outdoor luminaires.

Unless you are politically tuned-in, you probably didn’t listen to – or perhaps even read about – President Obama’s 2013 “State of the Union” speech. What you missed: A U.S. President talking up Energy Efficiency!

What did he say?

From the complete, official White House text, here’s the key paragraph:

            I’m also issuing a new goal for America:  Let’s cut in half the energy wasted by our homes and businesses over the next 20 years.  (Applause.)  We’ll work with the states to do it.  Those states with the best ideas to create jobs and lower energy bills by constructing more efficient buildings will receive federal support to help make that happen.

Not crazy about reading? You can watch the SOTU video (more than one hour).

Support: The DOE’s website offers videos and facts about the role energy and efficiency played in the speech.

Analysis: The Washington Post’s oft-referenced “Wonkblog” asks (and attempts to answer) whether the President’s goal is even possible.

What’s the meaning of this? On the whole, no matter how you voted, it’s not necessarily encouraging to have a guy whose term of office ends in January 2017 setting goals for 2030. On the other hand: Would you rather have the President of the United States (no matter who he or she is, no matter how you did or did not vote) talk about energy efficiency . . . or not?

Electrical contractors are energy consumers as well. Your electricity bill might not be all that much, but if you have trucks – especially if you have a service/maintenance arm – you are affected by gasoline prices.

For reasons not clear to most of us, the price of gasoline continues to soar (graphic above from this website). This despite:

a. We’re not even remotely close to “the beginning of the driving season” (i.e., Memorial Day)

b. There is an oversupply of petroleum in the U.S., thanks to the boom in oil from shale.

c. The global economic recovery keeps being scaled back. Europe’s prospect for economic growth are not good; China’s growth seems suspect; Japan is so badly off that they’re opting to create higher inflation; and the U.S. recovery is modest, at best.

So: Why are gasoline prices higher? It’s not clear. And it’s not very easy on the bottom line of electrical contractors (and others in an economy that relies heavily on trucks to move goods).

There’s only one (long-shot) silver lining in this: If gasoline prices go up another couple of bucks, maybe there will be a lot more enthusiasm for electric vehicles.

Articles that might be of use to you:

• Boston mayor wants building energy reporting.
• Which company is the biggest non-utility owner of solar PV systems in The Sunshine State?
• Did you know: The recent revamp of the Electrical Contractor magazine website put into place a Lighting “home page” that’s worth your time.

Final thoughts: About electric vehicles, from outgoing Secretary Chu – as relayed by the Green blog on the NY Times website:

First he cited the cost of the battery. While it has declined from about $1,000 per kilowatt-hour of storage in 2008 to about $500 today, it would have to decline to $125 over the next 10 years.

A kilowatt-hour will propel a small electric car three or four miles. Its cost is cheap, about 11 cents. Storage for that kilowatt-hour is what is pricey. A battery that stores $2 worth of electricity but costs $8,000 to buy and has the same range potential as two or three gallons of gasoline is an odd combination, like buying a solid gold cup and using it to serve tap water.

Second, Dr. Chu said, the cost of a kilowatt of power from the rest of the drive system, now $30, would have fall to $8. That would make cars with electric batteries competitive with cars running on internal combustion, even with the efficiency of the latter improving as time goes by. 

By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com.
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

GreentechMedia’s predictions for Cleantech in ’13

The list includes a shake-out in solar financing, agriculture as the next big new thing, “high-profile flameouts” in large-format energy storage, and a 50% spike sometime in calendar 2013 in natural gas prices. Of the first nine (#10 was, believe it or not, about the Redskins!), that predicted spike in natgas prices will be the easiest to spot (or not).

Crude oil prices to “test” $65/barrel in ’13

Really? That’s what the noted economic blog EconMatters predicted. Is it kind of difficult to reconcile the above natural-gas-will-spike call with this prediction (which would shave roughly $30 off the late-January going price for West Texas Intermediate)?

Certainly, should this come to pass, there would be a whole lot of relief at the gasoline pump for U.S. consumers – a “tax cut” of sorts that might offset the increase in withholding for Social Security taxes that kicked in on Jan. 1.

What’s the EconMatters rationale? “The most noteworthy trend in the Oil markets for 2012 is the increased role of US and Canadian production, and it is only going to get stronger for 2013 and into the future.

“The trend is definitely not a fluke; we have had a nice run of over a decade of high prices which has spurred a lot of economic investment into new technologies and an increase in smaller, independent operators searching for opportunities to make money by producing oil in North America.”

Electricity supply: Texas to face summer constraints

So says the North American Electricity Reliability Council. The ERCOT regional power grid, which encompasses most of TX, “is projected to be below target capacity for the summer of 2013 forward,” according to DOE’s Today In Energy.

Green building ‘megatrends’ for ’13 – from Yudelson

Jerry Yudelson, a consultant on green buildings who is familiar with the electrical industry (he’s worked with the National Association of Electrical Distributors) came up with 10 predictions for this year. Among the specifics:

• “at least 20 new cities of significant size with commercial sector green building mandates;”
• “Green Building Performance Disclosure will be the fastest emerging trend;” and
• “The focus of the green building industry will continue its switch from new building design and construction to greening existing buildings.”

Energy storage installation – the cost of making lineman comfortable (?)

Many believe energy storage is a vital part of the future – but that’s conceptual. What happens on the implementation level? From the Pike Research blog, on an energy storage installation:

“ . . . overhead switches installed in [Mount Holly NC] are there because the line crew that worked that sector was uncomfortable with a simple hand-operated lever-switch.  To move the overhead device from on to off, a linesman must hold a reach pole and physically disengage a blade from its enclosure.

“It’s a 19th-century tool for a 21st-century battery system.  The switch itself costs approximately $15,000, but Duke Energy designers felt that it was important to include it to make the linesmen comfortable with the addition of the battery at the substation.”

Semi-related: Pike’s report on the thermal energy storage market hitting $3.6 billion in 2020.

’13 outlook for rooftop solar (in Germany)

Germany has decided to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Likely result: Higher electricity prices. Short-term impact, according to this PV-Insider.com article: A better outlook for rooftop solar.

“The sharp falls in acquisition costs for solar plants and the continual electricity price rises have ensured that electricity from the grid is now more expensive for private households and the first business customers than the solar power they generate themselves.”

Official EV adoption numbers downshifted

Lux Research’s blog reported (1/25/13) – “The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has cut its adoption forecasts for America, projecting only 119,000 EVs to be sold in 2035 (its previous estimate was 340,000).

“Its flex-fuel vehicle (FFV) forecast has also been slashed, to 1.6 million sold in 2035 (from 2.9 million previously).

“One predicted bright spot was the hybrid market, with the EIA increasing its projection by 20% to 1.3 million sold in 2035.”

2012’s renewables numbers to show a decline

From IEEE Spectrum, on worldwide stats: “When the 2012 figures for all renewable energy investments are finalized and released, they are expected to show for virtually the first time in this century a decline in wind and solar spending rather than increase – a decline that could be as big as 10 percent, insiders say.”

OK; but what happens from here? Spectrum’s verdict: “To look at the really big picture in a sober but positive light, 2012 was the year in which both experts and publics came to think of renewable energy as nearing commercial maturity.

“The near-term effect will be a slowing of growth, as the major innovators, builders and operators struggle for a secure footing. The long-term effect will be renewed vigorous growth, from a stronger foundation.”

Most popular GreenBiz stories (of ’12)

Greenbiz.com is an avidly read site with green buildings, sustainability, and related news and features. An end-of-year slideshow provided some insight: These were the 12 most-read pieces (based on web page clicks, as you’d imagine) on the site last year. Among the top five were:

• Stories on McDonalds, Nike and Starbucks;
• The 6 biggest trends in sustainability reporting; and
• The chemicals & plastics industries are working to kill LEED.

Related articles you might want to browse:

From BrightSwitch: Number of LED rebates up 51%.

US home automation market up for grabs in 2013

On lighting: Existing buildings are poised for upgrades

AND: A roundup of research reports you can buy (some for a lot of money), as posted to my own EleBlog.

by Rob Colgan, NECA Executive Director, Market Development

The NECA Energy Solutions Task Force (ESTF), formed in 2009 and recently rolled into the broader-focused NECA Business Development Task Force (BDTF),  has been a tremendous incubator of ideas for driving change in the electrical contracting industry. Members of the task force have led the march from traditional power-and-lighting electrical contracting into energy solutions contracting, including a broad array of energy and environmental services such as energy efficiency, LEED buildings, renewables and energy storage. While the ESTF has performed a great deal of its work through online meetings, task force members have met at least once a year at a location that featured innovative research and development in energy technology. Beginning with its first meeting at the California Lighting Technology Center (CLTC) at UC Davis, the ESTF has gained inspiration from electrotechnology innovation at R&D facilities like Georgia Tech’s University Center for Photovoltaics Research and Education, Cooper Lighting’s The Source and Innovation Center, and the LEED Gold-certified Mandarin Hotel in Las Vegas City Center.  The NECA BDTF meets next week in Chicago and includes a tour of the Argonne National Lab, where research on battery technology and energy storage is ongoing, ever expanding opportunities for electrical contractors as energy solutions providers.

In March 2011, the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) in Golden, Colorado provided the ESTF with a tour of its Research Support Facility, a NetZero Energy building, and the Solar Research Facility, where researchers are leading the way to new solar technologies that continually raise the efficiency of solar cells and other related products. Research at NREL has expanded since the 2011 tour, and now includes the scale-up of alternative energy technologies and integration of renewables into the U.S. utilities’ mix of energy sources. NREL research is making the news, appearing regularly in industry newsletters, magazine and blogs. Follow the link below to an EnergyBiz.com interview with NREL Director Dan Arvizu:  

Upping Renewables – NREL’s New Weapon.

By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com.
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

There’s a lot of noise in the media – even the business media, on any given day. Some of what you recently might have heard or read borders on the following: Solar and Wind, and other energy alternatives, are Dead.

Why? We’ve learned how to be a lot better at poking holes in shale fields (such as the Bakken). The fields do not go deep, but thanks to “fracking” and horizontal drilling – not the same thing – we are producing, and will continue to produce, a lot of this natural gas.

[In fact, even where “tight oil” from shale is being produced, there is a lot of “venting” of gas as a byproduct. This can be captured, adding to supply.]

Natural gas is a subject that electrical contractors ordinarily don’t think about. Major issues here include:

(a)   Coal is unpopular. Natural gas can substitute for coal in power plants. And it is.

(b)  If there’s enough natural gas flowing over the short-term and onward, the price will stay down for a while.

(c)   We might well have so much natural gas that the U.S. could become an exporter. While U.S. market prices have been under $4 per million btu of natural gas, Europe has been paying $10/mbtu.

All of that has little to do with Solar and Wind, right? Except for this: As Solar power has threatened to become cheaper – for utility-scale power plants and even large facilities owned by non-utility concerns – electricity from natural gas looks to be even lower in cost.

Solar’s strengths

1 – Natural gas prices are volatile. Solar PV installations need high initial investments – and there are maintenance costs. But the price a utility or end-user pays for solar is pretty much level over time.

What does “volatile” mean? See the two-year natural gas futures price chart below.

Most businesses can’t abide the kind of shifts you see above in prices . . . especially in the primary feedstock.

2 – Solar PV installed prices may be headed down. One thing I’m determined to watch  is whether the U.S. government’s “SunShot Initiative.” Will it survive the upcoming departure of Energy Secretary Steven Chu? The program has a goal of dropping the installed cost of Solar PV below $1 per watt . . . by the year 2020.

According to DOE: “The SunShot Vision Study projects that solar technologies could satisfy roughly 14% of U.S. electricity demand by 2030 and 27% by 2050.”

Even if SunShot survives Chu’s return to some other line of work, will the program extend beyond Jan. 20, 2017 (when a new President is inaugurated)?

And there’s a third question: If the new DOE Secretary supports SunShot, and if a new administration remains behind it, will the program succeed?

3 – All of that may seem somewhat negative. But positives on solar abound. Note that all of what’s below happened since New Year’s Day.

Warren Buffet’s company has bought in (to the tune of $$2.0 to 2.5 billion) to several solar PV projects.

DOE recently claimed, since 2007, that its solar incubator program “has helped launch more than 50 American small businesses, which have since attracted more than $1.7 billion in follow-on private sector investments. These growing companies have created more than 750 jobs across the U.S. solar energy industry.”

Believe it or not, something called “crowdfunding” has come to solar, it says here: An “online marketplace that connects investors to high-quality solar projects, sold out its first four projects in less than 24 hours with over 400 investors putting in between $25 and $30,000. In total, investors put in over $313,000 with an average investment of nearly $700.”

Personally, I’m more strongly in favor of independent solar installations – on a house, on an office building – in preference to utility-scale solar. Perhaps this is because I’ve been watching utilities for much of the past 34 years. Recently, PowerEngineering.com ran this headline: FERC proposes rule to speed up solar energy grid interconnections.

Globally, solar PV may not be dead, either. According to this article, Germany – which plans to have ZERO nuclear power by the year 2022 – is now looking at solar PV with different eyes. Yes, Germany, that place where, to get some sunshine, thousands of people get on airplanes for Italy every single day!

And China – perhaps spurred to create positive news while the people in Beijing choked to death on “fresh” air – raised its solar PV installation target for 2015 by 67%.

There have been other positive indications recently. SolarCity, which is in the solar installation business, sold stock to the public (initially at $8.00/share) in mid-December; the recent price (Fri. 2/8 close) was $15.13.

Optimism might be merited

Of course, you can easily downplay much of what’s above. Germany is a long way from here; news from inside China (much less its government) has proved not particularly reliable; FERC is behind the curve; Warren Buffet is certainly NOT right about every little thing.

And, of course, the stock market’s moves – in one direction or another, on one stock or an index – mean nothing.

However, optimism might be merited on the future of solar PV. It is even possible that some day – within all of our lifetimes – solar installations will be down in the U.S. without the need for a U.S. government tax break or subsidy.

By Joe Salimando
Salimando is a Fairfax, Virginia-based writer and contributor to energysolutions.necanet.org, Wireville’s HOTS, and his own eleblog.com.
Reach him at ecdotcom@gmail.com

Getting your arms around rooftop solar photovoltaics isn’t easy.

First, solar PV is not a stable target. Costs are dropping, at least for the PV cells themselves.

Second, “balance of system” costs – which is one major place where electrical contractors come in – are a target. The U.S. Department of Energy has said it plans to drop the per-watt installed cost of solar PV to $1 per watt, including all costs. The plan hinges on dropping those BOS costs, as you’ll read here.

Third, things have been happening fast in solar PV. Manufacturers are struggling even as volumes move skyward.

Fourth, regulators have questions (see below).

And fifth and most astonishing, perhaps, the U.S. DOE has recently admitted that it has underestimated rooftop solar installations (also below).

Wellinghoff on transmission & solar

Will increasing solar PV installations by utility customers (residential, commercial, and others) reduce the need to build out more transmission?

That’s what Jon Wellinghoff appears to say in an interview with Public Utilities Fortnightly. Spread across four web pages, here’s a bit from page 2:

            . . . he acknowledged that DG, and especially rooftop solar, is now a major player, with PV panel costs falling fast, and that with enough solar installation on the customer side of the meter, the need for new long-haul transmission would recede. “We need to build only the transmission that we need,” the chairman said.

EIA enhances solar PV numbers

From the U.S. DOE’s Today in Energy blog:

National solar PV capacity is growing rapidly. Tracking this rapid growth is a challenge, however, because PV solar is more often used at a consumer’s location—e.g., rooftop solar panels—and less often in large, centralized generating stations like other technologies.

Included in the relevant blog entry (linked above) was this graphic:

Interesting points from the post:

1. Behind-the-meter (customer) solar PV capacity is LARGER than installed utility solar PV power plants (as shown above). The 2011 residential number may or may not be accurate, but 1,000 mW on houses and apartment dwellings – a guess at the aggregated total of a huge group of small systems – ought to impress almost anyone.
2.  . . . there is no census—either from government or industry—of the thousands of small rooftop commercial and residential solar PV installations across the United States.
3. EIA seems to want to make use of Net Metering data: . . . the net metering data collection is similar but more comprehensive and is preferred. The reported data for net metering are larger, and the net metering collection includes residential, industrial, and commercial sectors.